Pushing Out the Goalposts

“Pushing out the goalposts,” and the Bank of Canada with regards to interest rates.

So how should we interpret this? I’m wondering if the Bank feels it will cause more problems than it solves by going any higher with rates. Maybe they’ve resigned themselves to the reality that inflation will have to come down slower than they would like. Policymakers have probably been wondering how close we are to the straw that breaks the camel’s back for some mortgage holders.  This is to be determined...

This new inflation forecast, should it come to pass, has implications for people renewing mortgages in the next few years because it means we won’t be seeing any rate cuts for a long time.

In addition, those who's amortization have been extended - how much further can it be pushed before we start to see some serious stress.

In the near-term, this summer and fall, I would expect the impact on the resale market to be similar to what happened in 2022 – uncertainty around all of this pushing some buyers back to the sidelines. At this time we do not have much supply.  More supply coupled with less demand would calm price growth and lead to a slower more balanced market over the second half of the year. But will we see less demand?  Immigration appears to be at an all time high.  This was the largest factor in our most recent forecast revision.

We now have a couple of weeks (September 6) until the next Bank of Canada rate decision to watch the incoming data for clues about what comes next. Remember that after the April rate announcement, many observers thought we might be seeing rate cuts this year, so a lot has changed, but a lot can still change. Let’s cross our fingers.  XOX

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